Analyst forecasts Chinese economic growth will slow to 3 or 4 per cent

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Victoria has recorded new coronavirus cases and nine deaths. Follow our live coverage for the latest news on the coronavirus pandemic. A China expert says expectations of continued 7 per cent or more economic growth are too optimistic. Michael Pettis, professor of international finance at Peking University, believes growth rates might fall to as low as 3 or 4 per cent, which he says means the reform process is working.

However the forecast will strike fear into the board rooms of Australia’s resource companies which have enjoyed years of booming exports to feed China’s rapid industrialisation. Australia’s mining companies and its national accounts have done very well out of China’s rapid growth, and that is continuing even though its has slowed to around 7. However, Professor Pettis says if China’s growth rate falls to 3 or 4 per cent then it is a different story. There is nothing magical about a 7 per cent growth rate – it is simply what China’s leaders want.

It is also what many analysts believe is the rate at which the economy can more sustainably expand and still provide jobs. The shift is to encourage more domestic consumption and control the excessive reliance on real estate speculation and massive infrastructure building, and their resultant massive debts, which have grown at 2 or 3 times the rate of the economy. In fact interest rates have to go up, the currency has to continue to rise and wages have to rise more quickly than productivity for a few years,” Professor Pettis argued.

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